Minister of Health Dr Aaron Motsoaledi. Source: GCIS
By Anna Grimsrud and Sibongile Tshabalala-Madhlala
Minister of Health Dr Aaron Motsoaledi’s recent claim that over half a million people have been newly started on HIV treatment in less than six months has raised eyebrows in health circles. In this open letter, Anna Grimsrud and Sibongile Tshabalala-Madhlala, associated with CHANGE – South Africa, ask the Minister to explain numbers that, on the face of it, seem contradictory.
Dear Minister Motsoaledi,
We write to you in response to your 15 May 2025 press statement and subsequent remarks in Parliament on the current status of the national HIV, AIDS, and TB campaign.
You stated that since the launch of the Close the Gap campaign, 520 700 people have been initiated on HIV treatment, reaching “more than 50% of the target”. You also stated that 5.9 million people are currently on antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, at the campaign’s launch on 25 February 2025, you reported the same number on HIV treatment — 5.9 million. This raises a critical question: if over half a million people have started or restarted treatment, why has the total number of people on treatment not increased?
If both figures are accurate, this would mean that approximately 520 000 people have been lost from care over the past few months — a deeply concerning and unprecedented level of attrition. We respectfully request that you provide the underlying data and clarify the current total number of people remaining on HIV treatment.
There are several reasons why we are concerned:
Static treatment numbers: As noted, the number on treatment was reported as 5.9 million in both February and May 2025. If 520 700 people have been initiated or re-initiated during this period, the same number must have exited care — a scenario that requires urgent explanation.
Slow growth in the number of people on treatment: According to official statements, the total number of people on HIV treatment increased by only 100 000 between March and December 2023 — from over 5.7 million to 5.8 million. The claim that the cohort has now grown by over 500 000 in a matter of months contradicts recent trends.
Declining lab numbers: National Health Laboratory Service data reported by the Daily Maverick and Reuters, show notable declines in viral load testing and early infant diagnosis in March and April 2025 compared to the same months in 2024. These indicators should increase alongside meaningful growth in treatment uptake — not decrease.
In light of these concerns, we believe it is essential that you provide a transparent accounting of the current number of people on treatment and the metrics being used to assess progress under the Close the Gap campaign. Specifically, we request data demonstrating that the programme is on track to meet its stated goal: increasing the number of people on treatment from 5.9 million to 7 million.
We share your commitment to a strong and effective HIV response, especially in this period of financial and operational strain. Like you, we believe it is vital that accurate and complete information is shared with the public and Parliament at this critical moment.
*Anna Grimsrud is an epidemiologist with a PhD in Public Health and writes in her personal capacity. Sibongile Tshabalala-Madhlala is openly living with HIV and currently serves as the National Chairperson of the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC).” CHANGE is a coalition of more than 1 500 people from civil society organizations in South Africa and around the work — people living with HIV, activists, community health workers, researchers, programme members, epidemiologists, clinicians, economists, and others. CHANGE stands for Community Health & HIV Advocate Navigating Global Emergencies.
Note: Spotlight aims to deepen public understanding of important health issues by publishing a variety of views on its opinion pages. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily shared by the Spotlight editors.
Republished from Spotlight under a Creative Commons licence. Views expressed in the original article are not necessarily shared by Quicknews.
The international community must protect global responses to HIV, tuberculosis (TB), and malaria to serve humanity’s collective interests, according to an opinion article published May 14, 2025, in the open-access journalPLOS Global Public Health by Gorik Ooms from the Institute of Tropical Medicine, Belgium, and colleagues.
Within days of starting his second term as President, Donald Trump ended most United States (US) contributions to global health. Global responses to HIV, TB and malaria are not the only programs affected but were particularly dependent on US support. The US withdrawal from global health could result in 3 million additional HIV deaths and 10 million additional HIV infections, 107 000 additional malaria deaths and 15 million additional malaria infections, and 2 million additional TB deaths, all in 2025.
HIV, TB and malaria are global health security threats that require international collective action. The Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB and Malaria (Global Fund) entered its replenishment cycle for 2027–2029, with a target of $18 billion. A failure of this replenishment would make it impossible for many countries to compensate for decreasing US funding and decreasing Global Fund support.
The abrupt end of most US funding for global health comes at a crucial moment for the fight against the three epidemics. For HIV, funding cuts are disrupting treatment and prevention, and increasing morbidity, mortality and infections especially among marginalised groups. The transmission of TB remains high due to insufficient access to treatment, urbanisation and undernutrition. Control of malaria remains elusive due to emerging resistance to treatments, and insecticides, gaps in prevention, and limited access to healthcare.
According to the authors, the reduction of US bilateral aid calls for re-prioritisation and enhanced coordination of the global fights against HIV, TB and malaria. Currently, the Global Fund is uniquely positioned to undertake this endeavour, as it financially supports HIV, TB and malaria programs in most, if not all, countries affected by US spending cuts. This requires a successful replenishment, which seems improbable given uncertainty about the US position and considering the aid spending cuts announced by other high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries need to step in, which necessitates an overhaul of the Global Fund governance.
The authors outline four action points. First, all countries, regardless of income level, should support the current replenishment of the Global Fund. Second, the replenishment mechanism should move toward agreed and fair assessed contributions, such as 0.01% of the annual gross domestic product of all countries. Third, the Global Fund should commit to overhauling its governance structures to promote equal representation among geographical constituencies. Fourth, the Global Fund should commit to adhere to the Lusaka Agenda, which captures consensus around five key shifts for the long-term evolution of global health initiatives and the wider health ecosystem.
As noted by the authors, these four actions would save essential elements of the global responses to HIV, TB and malaria and set a central and collaborative mechanism for global health security on a path toward the principles of global public investment.
Dr Gorik Ooms adds: “Richer countries still view global health cooperation primarily as aid, from them to poorer countries. They do not seem to realise how this cooperation also protects their own interests. We must not only find enough funding to sustain it; but also rethink how we work together. Through genuine international cooperation between equal partners.”
Co-author Dr Raffaella Ravinetto concludes: “It is not only a matter of keeping life-saving programs alive. It is also a matter of building and maintaining a solid ecosystem, encompassing health infrastructure, policies and human resources, to make quality health care feasible everywhere. Through solidarity we can serve common interests.”
Image Caption: A person holds medications. Limited access to diagnostics and medicines will worsen treatment quality, inducing resistance to antiretrovirals and medicines for infections.
In many countries, males are more likely than females to get sick and die from three common conditions, and less likely to get medical care, according to a new study by Angela Chang of the University of Southern Denmark, and colleagues, published May 1st in the open-access journal PLOS Medicine.
Many health policies are the same for males and females, even though there is strong evidence that sex and gender can substantially influence a person’s health outcomes. In the new study, researchers gathered global health data for people of different sexes and ages for three conditions, hypertension, diabetes, and HIV and AIDS. By comparing rates of diseases between males and females and differences in diagnosis and treatment, the researchers sought to illuminate and reduce health inequities between the sexes.
The analysis identified significant differences between the sexes at each step in the “health pathway,” which includes exposure to a risk factor, development of the condition, diagnosis, treatment and death. Males and females received different care for hypertension, diabetes and HIV and AIDS in 200, 39, and 76 countries, respectively. Males had higher rates of disease and higher rates of death compared to females, and in some countries, were less likely to seek out health care and adhere to treatment. In most countries, males were also more likely to smoke, while females were more like to be obese and engage in unsafe sex.
Overall, the study suggests that public health professionals need to develop strategies to encourage males to participate in preventive and health care services. The researchers also highlight the importance of examining health data by sex to understand health inequities and guide appropriate interventions at multiple points along the health pathway. They conclude that we need more comprehensive datasets for these and other conditions so that we can monitor for sex differences and implement equitable health care policies.
Professors Kent Buse and Sarah Hawkes, co-founders and co-CEOs of Global 50/50 say, “We have long advocated the benefits of publishing sex disaggregated data. As our Gendered Health Pathways demonstrates, such data can reveal where the health journeys of men and women diverge be it in relation to the risk factors they are exposed to, their health care seeking behaviors or their experiences in health care systems. That is an important first step towards health equity. Most of these differences are not explained by sex (biology) alone, but by socially-constructed gender – highlighting the importance of taking a gender justice approach to reducing health inequities. A gender analysis can help to shape systems of health for all.”
Angela Chang, senior author, adds, “The evidence is clear: sex differences persist at nearly every point along the health pathway, from higher smoking rates in men to higher obesity prevalence in women, yet interventions rarely reflect this. Without sex-disaggregated cascade data, we’re flying blind – unable to detect who is falling through the cracks in prevention, diagnosis, and care.”
South Africa faces its worst health crisis in 20 years. Worse than COVID, and one that will overshadow diabetes as a major killer, while pouring petrol on a dwindling TB fire. But it is preventable if our government steps up urgently.
Nearly eight-million people have HIV in South Africa; they need life-long antiretroviral medicines to stay healthy.
The near-total removal of US government funding last week, a programme called PEPFAR, will see every important measure of the HIV programme worsen, including hospitalisations, new infections in adults and children, and death. Unless government meaningfully steps in to continue funding the network of highly efficient organisations that currently fill key gaps in national care, an epidemic that was tantalisingly close to coming under control will again be out of our reach. Millions of people in South Africa will become infected with HIV and hundreds of thousands more will die in the next ten years. 2025 will end much more like 2004, when we started our HIV treatment programme.
Many fail to recognize the danger. Commentators, public health officials, and government spokespeople have downplayed the US financial contributions to the HIV response, suggesting services can be absorbed within current services. The funding cuts amount to approximately 17% of the entire budget for HIV and largely go to salaries for health staff. On the face of it, this indeed seems replaceable. So why are the consequences so deadly?
To understand the impact, one must recognize how US funding has supported HIV care. The money is largely allocated to a network of non-government organisations through a competitive, focused, and rigorously monitored program in four key areas:
Active case finding: The best way to prevent new cases of HIV is find everyone with the disease early on, and get them on treatment. These organisations deploy people in high-risk areas, to test for HIV and screen for TB, and shepherd people who test positive to treatment programmes. People are almost always healthy when they start treatment, and remain healthy, with greatly reduced time to transmit the virus, and much less chance of ever “burdening” the health sector with an opportunistic infection. They are hugely cost-effective.
Tracing people who disappear from care: Patients on antiretrovirals fall out of care for many reasons, ranging from changing their address, to life chaos such as losing their job or mental illness. Or they are simply mixed up in the filing dysfunction within clinics. The US supported programmes helped finding people ‘lost from care’, maintaining systems able to track who has not come back, and how to contact them, often spending considerable time cleaning redundant records as people move between facilities.
Vulnerable population programmes: Services include those for sex workers, LGBTQ+ people, adolescents, people who use drugs, and victims of gender violence. These programs are for people who need tailored services beyond the straightforward HIV care offered in state clinics. They are often discriminated against in routine services and also at significant risk of contracting HIV.
Supporting parts of the health system: This includes technical positions supporting medicine supply lines, laboratories and large information systems, as well as organisations doing advocacy or monitoring the quality of services. All of this keeps the health system ticking over.
In central Johannesburg, where I work, HIV testing services have collapsed. The people who fell out of programmes are not coming back. HIV prevention and TB screening have largely stopped.
Reassurances that state clinics will pick up testing are empty – the staff do not exist, and testing has not resumed. State clinics do not trace people who fall out of care for any illness, let alone for HIV. The data systems maintained by PEPFAR-supported organisations are now gone.
What happens now? The first hard sign that things are failing will be a large drop in the number of people starting treatment, versus what happened in the same month one year ago. The next metric to watch will be hospitalisations for tuberculosis and other infections associated with untreated HIV infection. This will happen towards the end of the year, as immune systems fail. Not long after, death rates will rise. We will see that in death certificates among younger people – the parents and younger adults.
Unfortunately, much of this information will not be available to the health department for at least a year or two, because among the staff laid off in this crisis are the data collectors for the programmes that tracked vital metrics.
The above should come as no surprise, especially to the public health commentators and health department, which is why it is so surprising to hear how certain they are that the PEPFAR programme can easily be absorbed into the state services. The timing of this crisis could not be worse, with huge budget holes in provincial health departments.
Why should this be a priority? After starting the HIV programme in 2004, we spent the next few years muddling through how to deliver antiretrovirals to millions of people in primary care, before we realised we also needed to diagnose them earlier. In 2004, the average CD4 count (a measure of immune strength) at initiation of treatment was about 80 cells/ul, devastatingly low – normal is > 500 cells/ul. A quarter were ill with TB.
This CD4 count average took years to go up, but only by pushing testing into clinic queues, communities, and special services for key populations, not waiting till they were sick. Recently, the average initiation CD4 count was about 400 cells/ul, stopping years of transmission, with most people healthy, and only a small number with TB.
There are many reasons to criticise the relationship between PEPFAR and the health department. It suited both parties to have a symbiotic relationship that meant each got on with their job and ticked their respective output boxes, but neither had to tussle with the messiness of trying to move the PEPFAR deliverables into the health department. As we move forward, learning from these fragilities to plan for the future of the HIV care programme, and for other diseases, will be critical.
Since the suspension of funding, many people have said, “We don’t hear much about HIV anymore”. That is because when the system works well, you don’t hear about it. Some things are far better compared to 2004:
We have a government not in denial about HIV being a problem nor encouraging pseudoscience or crackpots.
Our frontline health workers, in over 3000 clinics, have vast experience initiating and maintaining antiretrovirals.
Antiretrovirals are cheaper, more potent, more durable, and safer.
Treatment protocols are simpler.
New infection rates are way down.
Government delivery systems have improved.
Data systems suggest that the majority of ‘lost’ patients are in care, often simply in another clinic.
A sensible emergency plan would do this:
Fund existing programmes for a limited time, understanding that the level of reach and expertise is impossible for the health department to replicate at short notice.
Couple this with a plan to make posts more sustainable over the next year or two.
Learn from the PEPFAR programme that rigorously held organisations accountable, so that provinces can similarly be answerable for their HIV metrics.
Ask hard questions why single patient identifiers, and government information systems, that could easily be linked to laboratory, pharmacy and radiology databases, are still not integrated within the public systems, as they are throughout the private health system.
Accept that certain key functions and clinics may best be sited outside of the health department.
This will not save the large and valuable research programmes, which need other help. Much of the rest of Africa needs a Marshall Plan to rescue their entire HIV service, as they are almost totally dependent on US government funding.
But ideas like the above will preserve the current South African HIV response and allow us to imagine interventions that could end the disease as a threat for future generations.
No one disputes we need a move away from donor-assisted health programmes. But the scale and immense urgency of this oncoming emergency needs to be understood. We need a plan and a budget, and fast. Or we will have an overwhelmed hospital system and busy funeral services again.
Professor Francois Venter works for Ezintsha, a policy and research unit at Wits. He has been involved in the HIV programme since 2001, and ran several large PEPFAR programmes till 2012. Venter and his unit do not receive funding from PEPFAR, USAID or CDC. Thank you to several experts for supplying analysis and ideas for the initial draft of the article.
Colourised transmission electron micrograph of an HIV-1 virus particle (yellow/gold) budding from the plasma membrane of an infected H9 T cell (purple/green).
A team of scientists at the Helmholtz Institute for RNA-based Infection Research (HIRI) in Würzburg and the University of Regensburg has unveiled insights into how HIV-1 skilfully hijacks cellular machinery for its own survival. By dissecting the molecular interplay between the virus and its host, the researchers identified novel strategies that HIV-1 employs to ensure its replication while suppressing the host’s cellular defences. The study was published in the journal Nature Structural and Molecular Biology.
HIV-1, like other viruses, lacks the machinery to produce its own proteins and must rely on the host cell to translate its genetic instructions. After entering host cells, it seizes control of the translation process, which converts messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) into proteins. “In this study, we combined ribosome profiling, RNA sequencing and RNA structural probing to map the viral and host translational landscape and pausing during replication of the virus in unprecedented detail,” says corresponding author Neva Caliskan.
Cheat Codes of Viral Translation
One of the key findings was the discovery of previously unrecognized elements in HIV-1 RNA called upstream open reading frames (uORFs) and internal open reading frames (iORFs). These “hidden gene fragments” may play a crucial role in fine-tuning the production of viral proteins as well as the interaction with the host immune system. “For instance, uORFs and iORFs can act as regulators, ensuring precise timing and levels of protein synthesis”, explains Anuja Kibe, a postdoctoral researcher at the HIRI and first author of the study.
Another important discovery was an intricate RNA structure near the critical “frameshift site” in the viral genome. This frameshift site is essential for the virus to produce the correct proportions of two key proteins, Gag and Gag-Pol, which are necessary for assembling infectious particles and replication of HIV-1. The researchers demonstrated that this extended RNA fold not only promotes ribosome collisions upstream of the site (a mechanism that appears to regulate translation) but also maintains the frameshifting efficiency. “Our team also showed that targeting this RNA structure with antisense molecules could significantly reduce frameshift efficiency by nearly 40 percent, offering a promising new avenue for antiviral drug development”, reports Caliskan.
A Game of Priorities
Redmond Smyth, a former Helmholtz Young Investigator Group Leader at the HIRI and currently a group leader at the Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) in Strasbourg, France, mentions, “Interestingly, our analysis revealed that, while HIV-1 mRNAs are translated efficiently throughout infection, the virus suppresses the protein production of the host, particularly at the translation initiation stage.” This allows HIV-1 to prioritise its own needs while effectively stalling the host defence mechanisms. Thus, the virus can manipulate the host cell machinery in ways that remain robust even under stress conditions.
More Than Traffic Jams
The researchers also observed that ribosomes collide at specific regions of the viral RNA, particularly upstream of the frameshift site. “These collisions are not accidental but are instead tightly regulated pauses that may influence how ribosomes interact with downstream RNA structures,” says Florian Erhard, study co-author and Chair of Computational Immunology at the University of Regensburg.
Overall, the study provides not only a detailed map of the translational landscape of HIV-1 infected cells but also a wealth of potential targets for therapeutic intervention. The identification of RNA structures and genetic elements critical for viral replication highlights new opportunities for the development of drugs aimed at disrupting these processes. “By understanding how the virus cleverly manipulates our cells, these discoveries will bring us closer to innovative treatments that could one day turn tables and outsmart the virus itself,” Caliskan adds.
AI image made with Gencraft using Quicknews’ prompts.
Quicknews takes a look at some of the big events and concerns that defined healthcare 2024, and looks into its crystal ball identify to new trends and emerging opportunities from various news and opinion pieces. There’s a lot going on right now: the battle to make universal healthcare a reality for South Africans, growing noncommunicable diseases and new technologies and treatments – plus some hope in the fight against HIV and certain other diseases.
1. The uncertainty over NHI will continue
For South Africa, the biggest event in healthcare was the signing into law of the National Health Insurance (NHI) by President Ramaphosa in May 2024, right before the elections. This occurred in the face of stiff opposition from many healthcare associations. It has since been bogged down in legal battles, with a section governing the Certificate of Need to practice recently struck down by the High Court as it infringed on at least six constitutional rights.
Much uncertainty around the NHI has been expressed by various organisation such as the Health Funders Association (HFA). Potential pitfalls and also benefits and opportunities have been highlighted. But the biggest obstacle of all is the sheer cost of the project, estimated at some R1.3 trillion. This would need massive tax increases to fund it – an unworkable solution which would see an extra R37 000 in payroll tax. Modest economic growth of around 1.5% is expected for South Africa in 2025, but is nowhere near creating enough surplus wealth to match the national healthcare of a country like Japan. And yet, amidst all the uncertainty, the healthcare sector is expected to do well in 2025.
Whether the Government of National Unity (GNU) will be able to hammer out a workable path forward for NHI remains an open question, with various parties at loggerheads over its implementation. Public–private partnerships are preferred by the DA and groups such as Solidarity, but whether the fragile GNU will last long enough for a compromise remains anybody’s guess.
It is reported that latest NHI proposal from the ANC includes forcing medical aid schemes to lower their prices by competing with government – although Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi has dismissed these reports. In any case, medical aid schemes are already increasing their rates as healthcare costs continue to rise in what is an inexorable global trend – fuelled in large part by ageing populations and increases in noncommunicable diseases.
Further on the horizon, there are a host of experimental drugs undergoing testing for obesity treatment, according to a review published in Nature. While GLP-1 remains a target for many new drugs, others focus on gut hormones involved in appetite: GIP-1, glucagon, PYY and amylin. There are 5 new drugs in Phase 3 trials, expected variously to finish between 2025 and 2027, 10 drugs in Phase 2 clinical trials and 18 in Phase 1. Some are also finding applications beside obesity. The GLP-1 agonist survodutide, for example have received FDA approval not for obesity but for liver fibrosis.
With steadily increasing rates of overweight/obesity and disorders associated with them, this will continue to be a prominent research area. In the US, where the health costs of poor diet match what consumers spend on groceries, ‘food as medicine’ has become a major buzzword as companies strive to deliver healthy nutritional solutions. Retailers are providing much of the push, and South Africa is no exception. Medical aid scheme benefits are giving way to initiatives such as Pick n Pay’s Live Well Club, which simply offers triple Smart Shopper points to members who sign up.
Another promising approach to the obesity fight is precision medicine, which factors in many data about the patient to identify the best interventions. This could include detailed study of energy balance regulation, helping to select the right antiobesity medication based on actionable behavioural and phsyiologic traits. Genotyping, multi-omics, and big data analysis are growing fields that might also uncover additional signatures or phenotypes better responsive to certain interventions.
3. AI tools become the norm
Wearable health monitoring technology has gone from the lab to commonly available consumer products. Continued innovation in this field will lead to cheaper, more accurate devices with greater functionality. Smart rings, microneedle patches and even health monitoring using Bluetooth earphones such as Apple’s Airpods show how these devices are becoming smaller and more discrete. But health insurance schemes remain unconvinced as to their benefits.
After making a huge splash in 2024 as it rapidly evolved, AI technology is now maturing and entering a consolidation phase. Already, its use has become commonplace in many areas: the image at the top of the article is AI-generated, although it took a few attempts with the doctors exhibiting polydactyly and AI choosing to write “20215” instead of “2025”. An emerging area is to use AI in patient phenotyping (classifying patients based on biological, behavioural, or genetic attributes) and digital twins (virtual simulations of individual patients), enabling precision medicine. Digital twins for example, can serve as a “placebo” in a trial of a new treatment, as is being investigated in ALS research.
Rather than replacing human doctors, it is likely that AI’s key application is reducing lowering workforce costs, a major component of healthcare costs. Chatbots, for example, could engage with patients and help them navigate the healthcare system. Other AI application include tools to speed up and improve diagnosis, eg in radiology, and aiding communication within the healthcare system by helping come up with and structure notes.
4. Emerging solutions to labour shortages
Given the long lead times to recruit and train healthcare workers, 2025 will not likely see any change to the massive shortages of all positions from nurses to specialists.
At the same time, public healthcare has seen freezes on hiring resulting in the paradoxical situation of unemployed junior doctors in a country desperately in need of more doctors – 800 at the start of 2024 were without posts. The DA has tabled a Bill to amend the Health Professions Act at would allow private healthcare to recruit interns and those doing community service. Critics have pointed out that it would exacerbate the existing public–private healthcare gap.
But there are some welcome developments: thanks to a five-year plan from the Department of Health, family physicians in SA are finally going to get their chance to shine and address many problems in healthcare delivery. These ‘super generalists’ are equipped with a four-year specialisation and are set to take up roles as clinical managers, leading multi-disciplinary district hospital teams.
Less obvious is where the country will be able to secure enough nurses to meet its needs. The main challenge is that nurses, especially specialist nurses, are ageing – and it’s not clear where their replacements are coming from. In the next 15 years, some 48% of the country’s nurses are set to retire. Coupled with that is the general consensus that the new nursing training curriculum is a flop: the old one, from 1987 to 2020, produced nurses with well-rounded skills, says Simon Hlungwani, president of the Democratic Nursing Organisation of South Africa (Denosa). There’s also a skills bottleneck: institutions like Baragwanath used to cater for 300 students at a time, now they are only approved to handle 80. The drive for recruitment will also have to be accompanied by some serious educational reform to get back on track.
5. Progress against many diseases
Sub-Saharan Africa continues to drive declines in new HIV infections. Lifetime odds of getting HIV have fallen by 60% since the 1995 peak. It also saw the largest decrease in population without a suppressed level of HIV (PUV), from 19.7 million people in 2003 to 11.3 million people in 2021. While there is a slowing in the increase of population living with HIV, it is predicted to peak by 2039 at 44.4 million people globally. But the UNAIDS HIV targets for 2030 are unlikely to be met.
As human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programmes continue, cervical cancer deaths in young women are plummeting, a trend which is certain to continue.
A ‘new’ respiratory virus currently circulating in China will fortunately not be the next COVID. Unlike SARS-CoV-2, human metapneumovirus (HMPV) has been around for decades, and only causes a few days of mild illness, with bed rest and fluids as the primary treatment. The virus has limited pandemic potential, according to experts.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has published a new study in The Lancet HIV journal that revealed significant progress in the global fight against HIV/AIDS, alongside a stark warning that current trends indicate the world is not on track to meet the ambitious UNAIDS 2030 targets.
The research, which analysed the global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS among 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021 and forecasted trends to 2050, highlighted a mixed landscape of achievements and challenges in the battle against this global epidemic.
Between 2010 and 2021, new HIV infections decreased from 2.1 million to 1.7 million, and HIV-related deaths decreased from 1.2 million to 718 000. Despite this progress, researchers found regional variation in the HIV response and forecast the world is not on track to meet UNAIDS 2030 targets to cut new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.
Sub-Saharan Africa leads the world in cutting new HIV infections and deaths from the disease
The global decline in HIV incidence is largely driven by sub-Saharan Africa, where the likelihood of getting HIV over a lifetime has fallen by 60% since its peak in 1995. This region also achieved the largest decrease in population without a suppressed level of HIV (PUV), from 19.7 million people in 2003 to 11.3 million people in 2021.
In contrast, the lifetime probability of HIV acquisition increased from 0.4% to 2.8% between 1995 and 2021, while PUV rose from 310 000 people to 680 000 people between 2003 and 2021 in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.
“The world has made remarkable global progress to significantly reduce the number of new HIV infections and lives lost to the disease, yet there are remaining challenges to overcome,” said Dr. Hmwe Kyu, IHME Associate Professor and study author. “More than a million people acquire a new HIV infection each year and, of the 40 million people living with HIV, a quarter are not receiving treatment,” she added.
Despite progress, UNAIDS’s HIV infection reduction and AIDS-related deaths 2030 targets won’t be met
Although substantial progress has been made against HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality, the world is not on target to meet the UN’s 2030 targets to reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90%.
The number of people living with HIV is expected to peak at 44.4 million by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease to 43.4 million people by 2050.
“The global community must make sustained and substantive efforts to sharpen the focus on prevention, optimize access to antiretroviral therapy, and make HIV testing widely available to achieve prompt diagnosis and linkage to care,” said Dr. Kyu.
New cases of HIV, and deaths associated with the disease, are expected to continue to decrease globally. However, long-term increases have been forecast in North Africa and the Middle East, where only 67% of people living with HIV are aware of their status, 50% access ART, and 45% are virally suppressed.
“Although new HIV infections and HIV-related mortality have fallen globally, they are increasing in several nations and regions. Our analysis is designed to inform countries’ sustained response to HIV that includes expanded access to lifesaving antiretroviral therapy (ART), effective prevention options, and innovative care models,” said Austin Carter, IHME Research Scientist.
The study authors set a series of recommendations to sustain and invigorate the global HIV response, including the strengthening of the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and other similar public health programs dedicated to HIV control, as well as the expansion of prevention services, with a multitude of existing and emerging technologies. Additionally, interventions and care delivery models that work must be studied and implemented effectively and equitably, with special emphasis on measuring progress and addressing remaining gaps in our collective goal of ending the HIV epidemic.
The findings and recommendations from the new study by the GBD 2021 HIV collaborators serve as a call to action for governments, health care providers, and the global community to renew their commitment to ending the HIV epidemic. Only through sustained, comprehensive, and equitable efforts will the world be able to achieve the UNAIDS 2030 targets and ultimately eradicate HIV/AIDS as a public health threat.
A University of Minnesota Medical School research team has found that giving iron supplements to children living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in sub-Saharan Africa could be an important first step in optimising brain development.
The study, published in Lancet HIV, demonstrates that iron, while often withheld from children with HIV due to fear of increasing infection risk, is in fact beneficial. This finding paves the way for future research examining iron’s role in neurodevelopmental outcomes in children with HIV.
“With the success and widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART), children with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa are living longer, and optimising their brain development is a new public health imperative,” said Sarah Cusick, PhD, associate professor at the U of M Medical School and a member of the Masonic Institute for the Developing Brain.
Between May 2018 and November 2019, researchers enrolled 200 children with HIV and anaemia who had received ART for at least six months. The study participants were randomly chosen to receive either iron supplements or a placebo for three months. Children who received iron had higher haemoglobin concentrations and better markers of iron nutrition than those who received the placebo. There also was no evidence of increased risk of infection.
According to Dr Cusick, further research is needed to assess brain development and infection risk over a longer period of time.
A therapy showing promise to help control tuberculosis (TB) does not interfere with combined antiretroviral therapy (cART), according to research by Texas Biomedical Research Institute (Texas Biomed) which was recently published in JCI Insight.
“This is an important hurdle that this host-directed therapy had to clear in order to help patients battling both HIV and TB,” said study leader Professor Smriti Mehra, PhD of Texas Biomed.
TB is responsible for more than 1.3 million deaths worldwide every year. Dr. Mehra and her team have been investigating a therapy currently used in cancer as a potential treatment for patients with drug-resistant TB and/or comorbid HIV. While many cases of TB can be controlled with months of antibiotics, the infection can return in people who are immunocompromised as a result of HIV. Now that cART is so effective at controlling HIV, a resurging TB infection can often be deadly to those individuals.
Dr Mehra is studying a host-directed therapy that blocks or inhibits an immune system protein naturally found in the body. The protein, called IDO (short for Indoleamine-2,3-dioxygenase), normally suppresses the immune system, preventing it from causing excessive inflammation and organ damage. Inhibiting IDO for short intervals of time has led to more successful cancer treatments. Dr. Mehra’s team has previously shown the same approach improves control of TB in conjunction with antibiotics.
This current study in nonhuman primates with both TB and simian immunodeficiency virus, the nonhuman primate version of HIV, showed the IDO inhibitor does not interfere with cART.
Researchers compare the impacts of cART by itself versus cART plus the IDO inhibitor in lung tissue of nonhuman primates with both TB and SIV. Left: Following just cART, significantly more IDO is detected in pink. Right: With the IDO inhibitor and cART, immune cells recruited to fight bacteria are observed inside the granuloma, a hallmark structure of TB. Specifically, CD4+ T cells are in green and CD68 proteins expressed by macrophages are in red.
“There was no increase in viral load in animals given cART and the IDO inhibitor, compared with animals only given cART, proving the inhibitor is safe to give to patients with HIV,” Dr. Mehra said.
Now that the researchers have shown the inhibitor works well in conjunction with TB antibiotics and with cART separately, they plan to study how it performs when given in conjunction with both antibiotics and cART together. This treatment regimen is standard for patients with both HIV and active TB. Dr. Mehra said that longer-term studies are also needed to confirm there are no unintended side effects.
The IDO inhibitor is already FDA-approved for use in patients with cancer, which shortens the path to potential approval for patients with TB/HIV when compared with developing a brand-new drug.
The African Centre for Disease Control and World Health Organization have raised the alarm following a drastic uptick in mpox cases. This surge is being driven by a new strain of the virus. Elri Voigt reports about what we know so far and potential implications for South Africa.
Mpox, a viral illness first identified in Africa in 1970, made headlines in 2022 when it spread across the globe for the first time. Since then, the outbreak has evolved, with multiple strains of the virus circulating in different countries. A new strain, known as clade Ib, first discovered in the Democratic of the Republic of Congo (DRC), is responsible for much of the most recent surge in mpox cases.
These recent developments are complex, and the situation is likely to change. This was the common theme of a special session on the mpox outbreak during the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Committee for Africa meeting at the end of August. This session took place two weeks after the WHO declared the outbreak to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
“We don’t have one outbreak. We have multiple outbreaks in one,” Dr Jean Kaseya, the Director General of the African Centre for Disease Control (CDC) remarked.
These outbreaks are caused by different clades of the mpox virus. Clades are a classification system based on the genetic similarities between different strains of a virus, explained Professor Tulio de Oliveira, Director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) at Stellenbosch University (SU). “So, what it means is that when we see a genetic change [in a virus] that’s really visible and that may have impacted it, normally we call it a different clade or genotype or variant,” he said.
This is similar to classifying different strains of SARS-CoV-2 as variants, Dr Duduzile Ndwandwe, a molecular biologist working for Cochrane South Africa, an intramural research unit within the South African Medical Research Council, told Spotlight.
She explained that the different mpox clades and sub-clades have mutated so they have genetic differences but still fall under the umbrella of mpox.
“In a nutshell…it’s just talking about the differences in the genome sequence of the virus, how many mutations [it has] or how big the mutations are in that virus’s strain of mpox,” she said.
‘Jump in evolution’
Dr Aida Sivro, senior scientist at the Centre for the AIDS programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), in 2022 told Spotlight that there are two clades of the mpox virus, which were then referred to as the Central African Clade (clade I) and the West African Clade (clade II).
Since then, clade I went through a big jump in evolution and a sub-clade emerged in the DRC, now called clade Ib, De Oliveira told Spotlight. The previous outbreak in 2022 was mostly driven by another sub-clade called clade IIb.
To further complicate matters, there’s a third strain of the virus also circulating – clade Ia.
At the moment, the DRC accounts for about 90% of mpox cases in the African Region, according to Dr Fiona Braka, the Emergency Response Manager for WHO’s AFRO region. She explained that right now the situation is not fully understood because a lack of diagnostics and testing capabilities is limiting understanding of the true burden of disease.
What we do know, she said, is that there are two distinct outbreaks in the DRC. Based on the information currently available, clade Ia is circulating in regions in the country where mpox is considered endemic and affecting mostly children. While clade Ib is spreading mostly among adults in the eastern provinces of South Kivu and North Kivu.
The clade Ib strain has since spread from the DRC to neighbouring countries Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya, according to Braka. Sweden and Thailand have also identified one case each.
As of 1 September, the WHO reported that there have been 3 751 confirmed cases of mpox and 32 deaths across 14 countries in African in 2024 alone. But there are many more suspected cases of mpox that have not been tested.
Implications for South Africa
De Oliveira said at this point, South Africa shouldn’t be overly concerned about mpox, but it should be alert. The best way to do this is to make sure the public know what the symptoms are so they can present for diagnosis and treatment if they suspect they have the virus.
In a similar vein, Ndwandwe said the public shouldn’t panic, but we as a country need to remain vigilant. She added that because clade Ib is spreading on the African continent, there is a risk of it spreading to South Africa through cross-border travel, making it a public health concern.
This year, 24 cases of mpox have been reported in South Africa. Three people have died, while 19 have recovered. Two people are still considered to have active disease, with the most recent case identified in early August.
But this doesn’t necessarily mean there aren’t more cases of mpox in the country. “What we do suspect is that we may have milder cases that are actually not reported,” Nevashan Govender, the operation manager of the Emergency Operations Center at the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) told Spotlight.
He said so far, all the cases in the country have been caused by clade IIb and no cases of clade Ib have been identified.
A polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) test is the gold standard test used to determine whether someone has mpox. But genome sequencing would need to be done to identify what clade they have.
Lots of unknowns around new strain
At the moment, there are a lot of unknowns around clade Ib.
What is of concern, according to Braka is the severity of disease seen especially in people who are immunocompromised and in pregnant women and children. Ndwandwe added to this and said there is a concern that clade Ib has higher fatality rates than clade IIb.
De Oliveira cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the severity of this new clade without sufficient data. He said we don’t know for sure yet if clade Ib is causing more severe disease than IIb. What we do know from mpox in general, he said, is that when someone is immunocompromised in some way, they tend to develop more severe symptoms.
Govender echoed De Oliveira’s caution that we don’t yet know enough about clade Ib to say definitively if it is for example more transmissible than other clades
“It’s not to say that it isn’t [more transmissible], but there is just not a lot of evidence stating that it is absolutely true…There’s a lot of knowledge and information gaps,” he said.
The NICD in a recent update also stressed that there are a lot of unknowns about this new strain. It added: “South Africa continues to prioritise enhanced surveillance and raising awareness for mpox.”
The state of vaccines and treatment for mpox
Spotlight reported previously that the smallpox vaccine, which hasn’t been routinely administered in South Africa since the 1980s when smallpox was eradicated, is thought to offer some degree of protection against mpox. However, it’s difficult to predict just how much protection the smallpox vaccine would provide, Sirvo told Spotlight for that previous article.
There are currently three vaccines against mpox that have been approved in some countries, a spokesperson from the vaccine alliance Gavi told Spotlight. These are LC16m8, JYNNEOS and ACAM2000.
LC16m8 is a third-generation small pox vaccine manufactured by KM Biologics. According to WHO, from 2022 it had mainly been used in Japan.
The JYNNEOS vaccine is a third-generation smallpox vaccine, manufactured by Bavarian Nordic, Ndwandwe said, and it was used during the outbreak in 2022. She added that this vaccine is considered the preferred option due to its safety profile and targeted protection against mpox.
ACAM2000 is a second-generation vaccine for smallpox and manufactured by Emergent BioSolutions. But it was only approved by the FDA for use in those at high risk for mpox at the end of August this year. It was not widely used during the 2022 outbreak but was available in some places under a compassionate use protocol (a means of providing medicines or vaccines that have not yet been registered).
In 2022, the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) recommended that JYNNEOS be used as the primary vaccine against mpox because it was associated with fewer side effects than ACAM2000.
While these vaccines exist, it doesn’t mean everyone can access them easily. Countries on the African continent have so far relied on vaccine donations facilitated by the WHO, with an initial 10 000 doses expected to arrive in Africa sometime this month.
Vaccine manufacturers KM Biologics and Bavarian Nordic have submitted proposals to the WHO for emergency use listing (EUL), according to WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. He added this will allow UNICEF and the vaccine alliance GAVI to buy the vaccines to supply to countries that haven’t issued their own national regulatory approval yet.
The treatment options for mpox are also limited. According to this WHO factsheet on mpox, some antivirals have received emergency use authorisation in some countries and are being evaluated in clinical trials. However, so far there is no proven effective antiviral treatment for mpox.
Tecovirimat, which was approved to treat smallpox, is one of these antivirals being evaluated. According to the CDC, studies in animals have shown the antiviral might help treat mpox but it is still considered an investigational drug for mpox. The drug has been used in some cases of severe mpox.
When asked about this, Ndwandwe agreed more research needs to be conducted to fully understand the evidence around using Tecovirimat. “But what we know now is that the fact that it was authorised for compassionate use, there is some benefit to using that treatment, given that there isn’t any other [treatment,” she said.
Mpox vaccine and treatment availability in South Africa
According to De Oliveira, a small batch of vaccines against mpox and an antiviral drug were made available to South Africa through donations during the outbreak earlier this year.
But the country would need more vaccines if cases increase to protect those at risk for severe disease.
At the moment, South Africa does not have access to any mpox vaccines and has asked for a donation of 40 000 vaccine doses, Foster Mohale, spokesperson for the health department told Spotlight. The country has requested the JYNNEOS vaccine, based on the recommendation by the National Advisory Group on Immunisation.
He added that South Africa’s request to its international partners and the WHO is ongoing support with access to tecovirimat should the need increase. He also requested the WHO’s assistance in procuring the 40 000 vaccine doses to vaccinate high-risk groups if mpox cases increase.
When asked if the department will be entirely reliant on donations of mpox vaccines or would seek to procure its own if cases increase, Mohale said it depends. “South Africa has been in communication with the vaccine manufacturer, Bavarian Nordic, and will consider procurement if needed,” he added.
Because there is a shortage of mpox vaccines and treatment and uncertainty about the sustainability of donated supplies, Ndwandwe said: “Our best defence at this point in time is to prevent [the spread of mpox cases] as much as possible and detect the cases as they start, early on.”
Symptoms of mpox
Govender said the NICD is urging people not to panic but to stay informed on the signs and symptoms of mpox using some of the accurate information available from either the National Department of Health or the NICD.
“The first line of defence for any public health emergency and outbreak comes from when people take initiative to protect themselves,” he said.
Mpox, which is spread by close contact, either household or sexual contact, with someone who has the virus, could initially manifest in flu-like symptoms or the characteristic mpox rash. These include a fever, sore throat, muscle aches, headaches and swollen lymph nodes, according to the WHO factsheet on mpox. The rash starts flat and then becomes a blister filled with fluid, which eventually dries and falls off. The rash can occur on someone’s palms or soles of their feet, face, mouth and throat and sometimes the genital areas.
Children, pregnant women and those who are immunocompromised are most at risk for developing severe disease or dying, the factsheet stated. This includes people living with HIV whose viral load is not well controlled.
Mpox is a virus and as with all viral infections it’s the immune system that fights it off, Ndwandwe explained. However, if someone is immunocompromised, so has a weakened immune system, there is a greater chance that the mpox virus will overtake their immune system and cause severe disease.
This is one of the reasons why we would be concerned about the disease in South Africa, Professor Helen Rees, the Co-Chair of the Incident Management Team (IMT) on mpox, previously told eNCA.
“We have many people living with HIV in the country, many of whom are on antiretroviral therapy, their immune system is good. But we have many others, who don’t know what their status is and might be vulnerable to severe mpox,” she said.
