Category: COVID

A Four Century Old Manual for Social Distancing Rules

A feature article from the BBC details how one doctor in the era of the Plague created an eerily familiar set of social distancing guidelines that matches a lot of our non-pharmaceutical COVID controls.

Staying at home and only sending out one person to do the shopping, keeping six feet apart and disinfecting goods – all of these feature in a manual created over four centuries ago to help protect Alghero, a small Italian town against the plague. The methods by a doctor named  Quinto Tiberio Angelerio, published in a 57-page booklet on his methods, titled Ectypa Pestilentis Status Algheriae Sardiniae.

Unlike most plague outbreaks, it failed to spread to neighbouring areas and died out within eight months – though not without claiming about 60% of the town’s initial population of 6000. Angelerio’s rules are thought to be at least partly responsible.

Ravaging Europe as well as Asia and North Africa, the plague left an unimaginable mark on Western society; tunnelling projects in London regularly run into mass graves of plague victims. Italian poet Francesco Petrarca wrote that future generations would likely not be able to grasp the scale of the calamity, and he is probably right in that regard. The plague continued to reappear, and devastated regions when it did – The Great Plague of London saw 24% of its populace dying over 1665 to 1666.

Although the germ theory of disease was then still centuries in the future, and bathing in urine was thought to be effective treatment, physicians in Europe believed in the contagion theory, thinking that diseases were spread through “miasmas” or “bad air”. This enabled them to come up with the idea of quarantines, from the Italian for “forty days” which was the standard isolation period.

Facing huge obstacles from a recalcitrant citizenry, Angelerio nevertheless persevered and soon a lockdown was enacted. This was not unique, as whole cities would be quarantined. Other rules that were enforced included a social distancing of six feet (as measured by a pole to be carried around by anyone outside), advising people to be careful shaking hands during mass, as well as railing preventing customers coming into contact with shopkeepers. He also used superstition to keep people in line, as European people of the time believed the plague to be divine punishment – although rule breakers were common, as they are now with COVID. He also advised cleaning and disinfecting houses, and household goods (or burning if replaceable), in addition to the contemporary practice of disinfecting newly arrived cargo. This was accomplished by fire or exposure to the wind, among others. However, the common practice of killing cats in response to plague was likely counterproductive, as rats hosted plague-carrying fleas.

Nevertheless, Angelero’s work was ahead of its time, and helped lay the foundations of modern disease control.

.Source: BBC Future

New Treatment for Severe COVID with Tocilizumab and Sarilumab

Following clinical trials, the NHS is to use tocilizumab and sarilumab, two anti-inflammatory drugs for severe COVID treatment. The treatments can cut the risk of death from severe COVID by a quarter, saving one patient for every 12 treated. Dexamethasone, the first drug found to effectively treat severe COVID, was found to cut deaths by a third if on ventilators and by a fifth if on oxygen.

The UK government is working with the drugs’ manufacturer to ensure an adequate supply for its patients – currently standing at 30 000 COVID cases in hospitals. It has also placed an export ban on the medicines, preventing its purchase and resale overseas for a profit.

Using an innovative adaptive trial design, the REMAP-CAP trial involved 4858 total patients, 4089 of which had suspected or proven COVID and over 800.

Compared to dexamethasone at £5 per dose (R100), the drugs are extremely expensive, however, at £750 to £1000 (R15 000 to R20 000) per patient – but this is less than half the cost of an ICU bed per day in the UK.Prof Stephen Powis, national medical director of the NHS, said: “The fact there is now another drug that can help to reduce mortality for patients with Covid-19 is hugely welcome news and another positive development in the continued fight against the virus.”

As a result of the successful trial, UK doctors are being advised to administer  tocilizumab and sarilumab should dexamethasone prove insufficient for treating severe COVID cases. The anti-inflammatory drugs reduce the damaging lung inflammation caused by severe COVID.

UK Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said: “Today’s results are yet another landmark development in finding a way out of this pandemic and, when added to the armoury of vaccines and treatments already being rolled out, will play a significant role in defeating this virus.”

Source: BBC News

COVID Cases Surge in Africa

Over the past month, Africa has recorded the highest growth in new infections, with a 13% growth over the last week. With only two million cases and 45 000 deaths, Sub-Saharan Africa still only has a small part of the caseload of other regions. 

Dr John Nkengasong, who heads the African Centres for Disease Control (CDC), said: “I think this is serious, the second wave is extremely aggressive.”  The latest surge is thought to be driven by the more transmissible South African variant, known as 501Y.V2. President Cyril Ramaphosa said this variant, found in 90% of new cases, was likely responsible for the country’s latest surge, which has caused morgues to fill up and hospitals to run short of staff and critical resources such as oxygen.  North of the border, Zimbabwe this week started a month-long lockdown to curb a rise in new cases and protect its own overburdened health care system. Nearly two million Zimbabweans live in SA and regularly travel and forth, potentially spreading the virus.

Rashida Ferrand, a London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine professor working at the Parirenyatwa Group of Hospitals in the Zimbabwean capital Harare told Reuters that there was “a pretty high likelihood” that the new SA strain of the virus identified could be circulating in Zimbabwe.

Lockdowns may now not be enough to control the spread of the new variant – certain studies of the similar, highly transmissible UK variant suggests that it may now spread too fast for its R (reproduction) value to be brought below 1, or otherwise cause a much slower decline in infections. Fortunately, it seems that lockdown measures in the UK are having some effect. 
Meanwhile, there are concerns that the SA variant may also be able to evade the protection of current vaccines, according to new research – but that has not been peer reviewed yet. Research in SA on the question is expected to provide answers. Meanwhile, 12 gene sequencing laboratories are being geared up around Africa to track the spread of the virus variants, and some genome sequencing work has been done since December, but not enough to paint a clear picture.

Source: The Telegraph

Medical Aid Schemes to Share Cost of Nationwide Vaccination

As arrangements are being made to pay for the COVID vaccination programme for South Africa, medical aid schemes are expected to contribute to the cost towards ensuring at least 67% of the population receives a vaccine, which is the minimum number to establish herd immunity.

Across South Africa, there are some 9 million medical aid beneficiaries, making up some 16% of the population and who collectively spent R186 billion last year on healthcare. The total cost of providing sufficient vaccines for the South African population is thought to range from R5 billion to R20 billion, depending on whether the vaccine is simply bought for the commercial price or whether the distribution and administration costs are factored in as well.

Discussions into paying for the mass vaccinations have suggested that mass-employers, such as mines, ought to contribute  This week, the Council for Medical Schemes (CMS) confirmed that vaccination would be a minimum prescribed benefit, so this will not be paid for out of medical savings.”The CMS acknowledges that there may be an additional cost burden to medical schemes for the provision of the vaccine, but this is not expected to be prohibitively high,” the body said. “In addition, industry associations have assured the CMS that vaccine costs can be absorbed by most medical schemes.”

South Africa’s vaccine source is not yet clear, although President Cyril Ramaphosa has hinted that Canada may share its excess vaccine stock. Canada currently has enough vaccine pre-purchase agreements to vaccinate its population five times over.

Source: Business Insider

WHO Team Barred from Entry into China

According to the World Health Organization, its team sent to China to investigate the origins of COVID were denied entry.

Conveying his disappointment at the team being barred from entry into China due to visas not being issued, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “today, we learned that Chinese officials have not yet finalized the necessary permissions for the team’s arrival in China.”

Addressing the media in Geneva, he continued, “I’m very disappointed with this news, given that two members had already begun their journeys and others were not able to travel at the last minute, but had been in contact with senior Chinese officials.”

“But I have been in contact with senior Chinese officials. And I have once again made it clear that the mission is a priority for WHO and the international team.” He added, “We are eager to get the mission underway as soon as possible.” 

The experts were to investigate the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Wuhan.  The team of 10 will be led by Peter Ben Embarek, WHO’s expert on zoonoses – diseases that cross over the species barrier into humans from animals.

Dr Michael Ryan, the emergencies chief at WHO, said the understanding was that the team would begin the deployment from Tuesday, and that two of its members had begun travelling to China, with one member already turned back due to visa issues while the other was still in transit.

“We did not want to put people in the air unnecessarily if there wasn’t a guarantee of their arrival in China being successful,” said Ryan. “Dr Tedros has taken immediate action and has spoken with senior Chinese officials and has fully impressed upon them the absolute critical nature of this.”
“We hope that this is just a logistical and bureaucratic issue that can be resolved very quickly,” he continued.

According to the The Financial Times, Hua Chunying, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, on Wednesday said, “Tracing the source [of the virus] is a complicated issue. To ensure that the international team’s work progresses smoothly, they must go through the necessary procedures.”

Source: The Independent

Steroids Indicated Only for Most Severe COVID Patients

According to new research, treating COVID patients with steroids to manage inflammation and stave off a cytokine storm may only be useful in patients with severe COVID.

Most patients with moderate to severe COVID in fact have a suppressed immune system, suggesting that treatment with steroids such as dexamethasone should only be applied to patients with most severe COVID. Severe COVID patients develop a hyperinflammatory reaction known as a cytokine storm.

The researchers measured cytokine levels in 168 adults with COVID, 26 with flu and 16 that were healthy volunteers. When dexamethasone or other steroids are administered to patients with already lowered immune system, they can backfire.

“We did identify a subset of Covid-19 patients with the broadly upregulated array of cytokines.. But, overall, the average person with Covid-19 had less inflammation than the average person with flu,” said study co-author Paul Thomas of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital.

The study authors thus believe that steroids should only be directed at the small subset of COVID patients with an overactive immune response. What they say is an urgent requirement now is a fast, reliable and cheap test to measure cytokines, thereby identifying those patients that are likely to benefit from dexamethasone.

Source: Times of India

New Study Shows Pollution May Accelerate COVID Spread

A study from the McKelvey School of Engineering at Washington University shows that pollution may have contributed to the rapid spread of COVID through the United States.

The spread of COVID is directly associated with the long-term ambient level of PM2.5 (particles less 2.5 micrometres in diameter) and the reproduction number R0 for the coronavirus. PM2.5 are small enough to enter the lungs and cause damage. Matters are only worsened with secondary inorganic components in PM2.5.

Looking at 43 factors such as age, population density and time delays in lockdown orders, and comparing it to pollution statistics, they found a linear association with PM2.5 concentrations and inorganic components. Interestingly, this relationship only appeared above a certain level of air pollution.

“Annual mean PM2.5 national standards are set at or below 12 microgrammes per cubic metre, below that you are supposed to be safe,” said Rajan Chakrabarty, associate professor in the Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering. “What we saw, the correlation we’re seeing is well below that standard.”

More detailed analysis showed that black carbon in the form of soot had a synergistic effect. “We found black carbon acts as a kind of catalyst. When there is soot present, PM2.5 has more of an acute effect on lung health, and therefore on R0.”

Source: Science Daily

Black Market for Negative COVID Tests

According to Business Insider South Africa, falsified negative COVID tests are being used around the world, with even a black market for them existing.

In France, seven people were arrested when a traveller at Charles de Gaulle Airport was discovered trying to travel with a falsified negative COVID digital certificate. The fraudulent certificates were being sold for $180 (R2,800) to $360 (R5,600) each. In October, a group of travellers in Brazil faked their own COVID test results trying to get into the Fernando de Noronha island group. While in the UK, a number of people admitted altering the test results for friends, because the certificates were electronic and very simple to alter and then print.

MRI Scans Reveal Post-COVID Extent of Lung Damage

A study of non-hospitalised individuals who had recovered from COVID but still experienced breathing difficulties had revealed lung damage where other tests were unable to.

To investigate post-COVID lung damage, Prof Fergus Gleeson led a study involving 10 participants aged 19 to 69, of whom eight had been experiencing breathing difficulties three months after a COVID infection. They had not been hospitalised for their COVID, and conventional scans had not been able to detect any abnormalities with their lungs.

The patients’ lungs were imaged using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans with xenon present in the lungs. Xenon, a noble gas, is non-toxic Xenon has a long history of use as a contrast agent, and is soluble with pulmonary tissue, allowing for investigation of specific lung characteristics that are connected to gas exchange and alveolar oxygenation, at the level of small airways where pulmonary function tests (PFTs) cannot provide information.

The scans revealed that there was indeed lung damage preventing alveolar oxygenation – and it was unexpectedly severe.

Prof Gleeson said, “I was expecting some form of lung damage, but not to the degree that we have seen.”

The findings help to explain the phenomenon of “long COVID”, where patients who have recovered from COVID continue to experience fatigue and breathing difficulties months after the original infection has ended.Based on the findings, Prof Gleeson will undertake a study with a further 100 participants based on the same criteria.

Source: BBC News 

No Lockdown May Worsen Economies

In an article for The Conversation, Michael Smithson of the Australian National University argues that far from there being a toss-up between saving lives with a lockdown, and protecting the economy by keeping a country open, lockdown may in fact protect the economy.

Some arguments even leaned towards Indeed, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said in June, “I think we’ve learned that if you shut down the economy, you’re going to create more damage.”

The choice of whether to implement lockdown has been a particularly difficult choice to make for South Africa, beset by deep inequality. Its lockdown caused its economy to shrink by 51% in the second quarter.

Economic and COVID data from 45 countries was sourced for analysis. The data has two outliers; namely China, which implemented a very effective early lockdown, and India, which implemented a strict lockdown that became very ineffective as time went by.

Consumer expenditure, an important indicator of economic activity, was negatively correlated with COVID cases, indicating that the economy fared better with attempts to suppress the virus (at least temporarily).

In European countries, GDP was positively correlated with COVID cases, indicating that economic activity itself drove up the rate of COVID cases. 

The article’s conclusions do have some limitations. The economic data were drawn from the second quarter, and COVID cases were taken as of June 30, but the pandemic hit different countries at different times.