Tag: covid

Categories : COVIDTags :

India’s True Pandemic Death Toll Likely Over Three Million

On By ModernMedia
FIG. 1. Percentages of adults reporting daily death in household, expected percentage in 2020, and daily confirmed COVID deaths in India, 1 June 2020 to 1 July 2021. COVID Tracker deaths (red line, left vertical scale) represent COVID deaths reported daily (smoothed for rolling 7-day averages) at age 35 or older, less a subtraction value of 0.59% to represent nonhousehold reporting. Expected all-cause deaths (grey dashed line, left vertical scale) per year of 3.4% (see text), with 7-day smoothed weekly adjustment from variation observed among 480,000 deaths in the Million Death Study from 2004 to 2014. Confirmed COVID deaths (blue bars, right vertical scale) are daily reports from Covid19india.org (2).
Credit: DOI: 10.1126/science.abm5154

An updated estimate for COVID mortalities in India puts the true number at over three million, which is so much higher than the official estimate of around a million that it would raise the World Health Organization’s official global death toll by 50%.

When the COVID Delta wave hit India over early to mid-2021, hospitals were filled beyond capacity, oxygen ran out, and community networks for tending to the dead were overwhelmed. At the time, government reporting put the death toll at under a million.

However, other sources estimated that the toll was far worse than this, likely in the millions. A more accurate measure of COVID mortality in India puts that number at 3.2 million people, according to a paper published in Science. 

“The analyses find that India’s cumulative COVID deaths by September 2021 were six to seven times higher than reported officially,” the international team of researchers wrote.

“You have to put that into context,” said Associate Professor of Economics Paul Novosad, co-author of the paper. “At the time that we were writing this, India was reporting about half a million official COVID deaths, the World Health Organization was reporting about 4 to 5 million COVID deaths globally, so just this adjustment – just correctly counting the deaths in India – is going to raise the global mortality count of COVID by almost 50%.”

The team looked at all-causes mortality from an independent survey of 140 000 adults, and from two government data sources including deaths reported in health facilities and registered deaths in 10 Indian states. Comparing these to previous years without COVID, they found that total deaths increased by 26% to 29% in the COVID period compared to total deaths in past years. This range was consistent across separate data sources, the researchers wrote.

“We’re triangulating on this number from a lot of different directions and have broad agreement regarding the range that we’re finding,” said Novosad.

Novosad’s work incorporates many novel types of data, including measures of well-being generated from satellite images, data collected by government programs, and archival administrative records not previously used for policy design. His research lab, which focuses on India, has created an open source data platform to support socioeconomic research in India and the developing world.

“A large part of my research agenda is based on finding new, 21st-century data sources and mobilising them for better research and policy,” he said.

Novosad believes this work can help answer many  critical questions about how governments and organisations can respond to the global pandemic.

“The decisions you make are better if they’re based on true facts about the world. If you don’t have data, then you just have to work on stories and impressions,” he said. “We need an empirical foundation for this kind of work.”

Source: Dartmouth College

Categories : COVID Expert OpinionTags :

An Estimated 70% of South Africans Have Had COVID

On By ModernMedia
Image by Quicknews

Writing for GroundUp, Dr Alex Welte unpacks the results of the latest blood donor survey, which suggests that some 70% of South Africans have had a COVID infection.

The South African National Blood Service (which handles the blood supply for eight provinces) and the Western Cape Blood Service have been testing some donors for Covid antibodies over the last year or so. This has contributed to our understanding of how many people have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid), and what proportion of infections lead to death. It may help us plan for future waves, though exactly how is complicated.

On the assumption that another wave towards the end of 2021 was nearly inevitable – but before we all heard about omicron – it was decided to perform more such testing in early November. The numbers are now out.

The headline results are:

  • Overall about 80% of black donors had previously had Covid, and 40% of white donors.
  • There is no meaningful variation between age groups and sexes.
  • This latest survey did not include Western Cape data.
  • The test used does not detect the antibodies produced in response to vaccination, so this really is an estimate of people who have been infected.

While blood donors are not perfectly representative of the country’s population, we can take into account differences between the racial breakdown of the donor population and the racial breakdown of the general population. This means that our face-value national estimate is that about 70% of people had been infected before the omicron wave hit.

Since then we’ve had the omicron wave. We would very much like to know how many people are infected now, but there’s really no simple way to derive this number. Researchers are now updating their models with this additional piece of data, and we may see some estimates soon.

With that caution, here is my back-of-the-envelope estimate:

  • Omicron seems to have little trouble infecting people who have been infected by other variants, though there is some protection from prior infection and vaccination.
  • By late last year, quite a bit more than half the population had already had a prior infection.
  • Hence, I estimate that about half of the omicron wave infections were in previously uninfected individuals.
  • Given the infection detection rate estimates from previous waves, and a number of plausible sources of possible variation in this rate, I estimate the detection rate at about 1 in 10.
  • Given the roughly 700 000 cases reported between mid November and mid February, we get an estimate of 7 million cases, and therefore 3.5 million new infections.
  • Given our population of about 60 million, this is roughly an additional 6%.
  • Bottom line: it’s not crazy to estimate that about three-quarters of South Africans have by now been infected. But I would not be surprised if serious models come up with even higher estimates.

A troubling result of the survey is that once more it shows the serious racial disparities in South Africa. I don’t know if this carried over to the omicron wave. Estimating the racial breakdown of infection after omicron depends in a complicated way on variations in housing, lifestyle, access to vaccination, and all the usual factors that shape daily life in our country.

Dr Welte helped design and implement the blood donor survey.

Source: GroundUp

Categories : COVID PaediatricsTags :

High COVID Mortality Rate Found in African Children and Adolescents

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Roman Nguyen on Unsplash

African children and adolescents hospitalised with COVID experience much higher mortality rates than Europeans or North Americans of the same age, according to a recent six-country study which included South Africa.

The study, published in JAMA Pediatrics. was conducted by researchers from the Institute of Human Virology (IHV) at the University of Maryland School of Medicine (UMSOM) and the Institute of Human Virology Nigeria (IHVN). Both organisations are members of the Global Virus Network (GVN).

“This study provides important information about COVID among African children, which was not previously available at this scale. We now have evidence from multiple countries to show that African children also experience severe COVID; they experience multisystem inflammatory syndrome; some require intensive care; some also die, and at much higher rates than outside Africa,” said co-first author Nadia Sam-Agudu, MD, Associate Professor of Pediatrics at the UMSOM’s Institute of Human Virology.

The AFREhealth study collected data from 25 health facilities across Nigeria, Ghana, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda. The study included 469 African children and adolescents aged three months to 19 years hospitalised with COVID between March and December 2020. The team reported a high overall mortality rate of 8.3%, compared with 1% or less totaled from Europe and North America. Furthermore, African children less than a year old and with pre-existing, non-communicable diseases were more likely to have poorer outcomes.

Eighteen participants had suspected or confirmed multisystem inflammatory syndrome (also known as MIS-C), and four of these children died.

Dr Sam-Agudu, who led the West Africa team for the study, urged health authorities and policymakers in Nigeria and other African countries to act upon the study findings “to protect children by expanding vaccine approvals and procurements for children specifically, as the variants emerging since our study’s completion have either caused more severe disease and/or more cases overall. We cannot leave children behind in the pandemic response.”

Source: University of Maryland

Categories : COVIDTags :

Almost a Third of Older Adults Develop New Condition after COVID

On By ModernMedia
Image from Pixabay

Almost a third of older adults infected with COVID in 2020 developed at least one new condition requiring medical attention in the months after initial infection, compared to only a fifth who were not infected, according to a study published by The BMJ.

Conditions involved a range of major organs and systems, including the heart, kidneys, lungs and liver as well as mental health complications. Some studies now examine the frequency and severity of sequelae after COVID infection, but few have described the excess risk of new conditions triggered by COVID infection in adults 65 and older.

Researchers used US health insurance records to identify 133 366 individuals aged 65 or older in 2020 who were diagnosed with COVID before 1 April 2020. Three (non-COVID) comparison groups were matched: from 2020, 2019, and a group diagnosed with viral lower respiratory tract illness.

The researchers then recorded any persistent or new conditions starting 21 days after a COVID diagnosis (the post-acute period) and calculated the excess risk for conditions triggered by COVID over several months based on age, race, sex, and whether patients were hospitalised with COVID.

The results show that among individuals diagnosed with COVID9 in 2020, 32% sought medical attention in the post-acute period for one or more new or persistent conditions, which was 11% higher than the 2020 comparison group.

Compared with the 2020 comparison group, COVID patients were at increased risk of developing a range of conditions including respiratory failure (an extra 7.55 per 100 people), fatigue (+5.66 per 100), high blood pressure (+4.43 per 100), and mental health diagnoses (+2.5 per 100). Similar findings were found for the 2019 comparison group.

However, compared with the group with viral lower respiratory tract illness, only respiratory failure, dementia, and fatigue showed increased risk differences of 2.39, 0.71, and 0.18 per 100 people with COVID, respectively.

Individuals hospitalised with COVID had a markedly increased risk for nearly all conditions. The risk of several conditions was also increased for men, for those of black race, and for those aged 75 and older.

Limitations include being an observational study – however, the authors warn that the number survivors with sequelae will continue to grow.

“These findings further highlight the wide range of important sequelae after acute infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus,” they write. “Understanding the magnitude of risk for the most important clinical sequelae might enhance their diagnosis and the management of individuals with sequelae after acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.”

“Also, our results can help providers and other key stakeholders anticipate the scale of future health complications and improve planning for the use of healthcare resources,” they conclude.

Source: The BMJ

Categories : COVIDTags :

Is it Possible to Detect COVID in Exhaled Breaths?

On By ModernMedia
Source: CDC

In a study published in Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, researchers were able to detect SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in droplets from the exhaled breaths and coughs of COVID patients.

COVID is assumed to be transmitted mainly by respiratory droplets. However, probable aerosol transmission has been reported to occur under certain conditions. The researchers sought to address the lack of information on viral load in exhaled breath samples,as well as the size and concentration of exhaled endogenously generated droplets in relation to viral load. Additionally, the relationship between the viral load in upper airway diagnostic samples and aerosol samples needed to diagnose.
For the study, researchers analysed exhalations by two different methods during 20 normal breaths, 10 airway opening breaths (which involves deep inhalation followed by relaxed exhalation), and 3 coughs.

PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in aerosols was possible in 10 out of 25 participants. Viral RNA presence in aerosol was mainly detected in cough samples (8 samples), but also in normal breaths (4 samples) and in airway opening breaths (3 samples).  

“Our data confirm findings from other researchers that SARS-CoV-2 can be detected in aerosol particles < 5µm and highlight the small amount of exhaled aerosol needed for detection. Of specific interest were findings from the airway opening maneuver, which is thought to generate particles mainly from the small airways,” said lead author Emilia Viklund, PhD student at the University of Gothenburg, in Sweden. “COVID causes a lot of damage in this region, and it would be of great interest to further explore the amount of exhaled virus and the course of disease, as well as the infectious potential of exhaled virus.”

Source: Wiley

Categories : COVID HospitalsTags :

Bleeding from Full-dose Anticoagulants in COVID ICU Patients

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Mufid Majnun on Unsplash

COVID patients in intensive care units (ICU) receiving full-dose anticoagulants are significantly more likely to experience heavy bleeding than patients prescribed a smaller yet equally effective dose, according to a recent study.

The research, which compared the safety and effectiveness of blood clot treatment strategies for more than 150 critically ill COVID patients at two hospitals, found that almost all patients who experienced significant bleeding were on mechanically ventilation and receiving full-dose anticoagulants.

The results, published last month in Hospital Pharmacy, may inform treatment guidelines for blood clots in hospitalised COVID patients, who are at an increased risk for both blood clots and severe bleeding. Previous reports have found that 17% of hospitalised COVID patients experience blood clots, said first author Maya Chilbert, PharmD, clinical assistant professor in the UB School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences.

“A wide variety of practice exists when it comes to approaching blood clots in hospitalized patients with COVID, and there is little data to suggest improved outcomes using one strategy versus another,” said Chilbert. “Caution should be used in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID when selecting a regimen to treat blood clots, and the decision to use full-dose blood thinners should be based on a compelling indication rather than lab markers alone.”

The study analysed the outcome of blood clot treatments and the rate of bleeding events for more than 150 patients with COVID-19 who received either of two blood thinner regimens: a full-dose based on patient levels of D-dimer, and the other a smaller but higher-than-standard dosage.

Patients’ average age was 58, and all experienced elevated levels of D-dimer, fibrinogen, and prothrombin time.

Significant bleeding events were experienced by almost 14% of patients receiving full-dose anticoagulants, compared to only 3% of patients who received a higher-than-standard dosage. All patients who experienced bleeding events were on mechanical ventilation. No difference was reported in the regimens’ effectiveness at treating blood clots.
Further investigation is needed to determine the optimal strategy for treating blood clots and bleeding in hospitalised COVID patients, said Asst Prof Chilbert.

Source: University at Buffalo

Categories : HospitalsTags :

Operating Room Availability Planning Helped Cushion Staff Shortages

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Jafar Ahmed on Unsplash

Decreasing operating room (OR) availability by 15% helped a hospital address a 30% staff shortage caused by the COVID pandemic, while surgeons were largely satisfied with the arrangements, according to a study by UPMC Presbyterian Hospital.

“The Great Resignation has disproportionately impacted health care to near-crisis levels and we were able to address ongoing staff shortages by methodically decreasing available surgical times,” said Dr Kimberly Cantees, clinical director of anaesthesiology and perioperative services at UPMC Presbyterian Hospital. “By using a phased approach, including daily meetings to address scheduling issues, we were able to prioritise essential surgeries and care for patients with the greatest need.”

UPMC is a comprehensive quaternary care regional and national referral centre for many surgical specialties. The hospital implemented a five-phased approach for the study, which started in May 2021, to ensure that it could maintain provision of essential surgical care when its surgical technologist and OR nurse vacancy rate reached 30%. The phases went as follows:

  • Phase I (May 2021): Restricted OR availability for surgeries that were less time- sensitive and moved some to other hospitals and surgery centers in the UPMC system; decreased OR availability for surgeons with highly elective cases (eg, sports orthopedic procedures, select hand surgery cases, some plastic surgery) and moved a small amount of surgical work to the bedside in the intensive care unit.
  • Phase II (July 2021): Formed a multidisciplinary surgical services capacity committee that met daily to ensure the staffing matched the surgical schedule for the subsequent two weeks. Values for surgical care were identified and cases such as transplant and cancer surgeries were prioritised.
  • Phase III (Oct. 2021): Reduced OR time availability by 15% when surgeries could be scheduled and extended the deadline for standard scheduling guidelines from three days to five days before surgery.
  • Phase IV (Nov. 2021): Instituted additional reduction of OR scheduling to meet continued staff shortages and reduced available OR time for all surgical services by an additional 10%. Surgeons with two ORs had their time reduced for all services, except for the care of trauma patients.
  • Phase V (Jan. 2022): Implemented UPMC system-wide review of surgical case prioritisation and opened more ORs for booking, which allowed greater flexibility for performing surgeries depending on staffing availability.

Over the course of the phased approach, the available ORs were decreased from 36 to 31 (15%). This has been adequate to address the 30% reduction in surgical services staff, Dr Cantees explained. The approach also helped the hospital to cope with staffing shortages during the Omicron surge.

Dr Cantees said there was minimal pushback from surgeons to the phased approach, mostly thanks to clear communication of both the staffing hurdles, as well as established surgical priorities. Communication occurs between members of the multidisciplinary surgical services capacity committee and individual surgeons.

The study was presented at the American Society of Anesthesiologists’ ADVANCE 2022, the Anesthesiology Business Event.

Source: EurekAlert!

Categories : Medical Research & TechnologyTags :

Why Public ‘Big Data’ Initiatives Failed to Deliver on COVID

On By ModernMedia
Source: Pixabay

Experts from a data-driven initiative to aid the COVID response have outlined major obstacles to making successful use of new data released by technology companies in times of crisis. Harvard University’s Caroline Buckee and colleagues presented these views in the open-access journal PLOS Digital Health.

Technology companies collect vast amounts of data on their users, including their geographic locations. During the COVID pandemic, many companies made some of their user data available in order to aid public health efforts, such as monitoring the impact of social distancing policies or travel restrictions. However, Buckee and colleagues note, many efforts to harness these “data for good” failed to make a significant impact.

The authors are part of Crisis Ready, in which epidemiologists help policy makers understand and use insights from human mobility data released by technology companies. In this capacity, they have now identified challenges that hinder other efforts to use novel forms of data as part of disaster response.

Firstly, data-sharing agreements between researchers and technology companies were hastily arranged during the pandemic. They recommend pre-established agreements that will be ready for implementation in future crises.

Buckee and colleagues also observed that a lack of standardisation, interoperability, and clarity on uncertainties or biases in novel datasets resulted in the need for highly specialised professionals to process this data. To address this challenge, data access and characteristics can be negotiated prior to a disaster.

The authors also call for global investment in training more professionals that can analyse complex data to provide information in a disaster. In addition, they strongly emphasise the need for local response agencies to collaborate closely with regional scientists.

Without such efforts, no amount of data donated by technology companies will be useful in a crisis.

“It is still very difficult to translate the vast amounts of digital data that are owned by companies into useful public health tools, despite their incredible potential for transforming decision-making during health emergencies,” said Buckee. “We need to build a global cohort of data scientists and epidemiologists who can support local governments, and put in place the data pipelines and analysis tools before disasters hit, so that local responders have context-specific information when they need it most.”

Source: News-Medical.Net

Categories : COVIDTags :

Over 50s Have Greater Risk of Reduced Mobility after COVID

On By ModernMedia
Photo by Bennett Tobias on Unsplash

Adults over 50 with mild or moderate COVID have increased risk of worsening mobility and physical function, even if hospitalisation is not required to treat the virus, new research has found.

The study, published in JAMA Network Open, highlights the burden of COVID among middle-aged and older adults who are not hospitalised, and suggests that even those who experienced even mild COVID have lasting, troublesome symptoms.

Researchers surveyed more than 24 000 people over the age of 50 from across Canada during the initial phase of the lockdown in 2020 to determine the effect of a COVID diagnosis on their mobility. 

The team looked at mobility issues including difficulty getting up from sitting in a chair, ability to walk up and down stairs without assistance and walking two to three neighbourhood blocks, as well as changes in participants’ ability to move around the home, engage in housework and physical activity.

“We found that even those with mild and moderate illness due to COVID experienced adverse changes in mobility and physical function compared to individuals without COVID,” said co-author Professor Susan Kirkland.

“These findings are worth noting because they indicate that the negative effects of COVID are much broader and impact a wider range of older adults than those who are hospitalised for COVID.”

Participants with COVID had nearly double the odds of worsening mobility and physical function, although most had mild or moderate symptoms. Of the 2748 individuals with confirmed, probable or suspected COVID, 94% were not hospitalised.

Individuals with confirmed or probable COVID had double the odds of worsening ability to engage in household activities and participate in physical activity than those without COVID. Similar results were found for those with suspected COVID.

“Our results showed there was a higher risk for mobility problems in people who were older, had lower income, those with three or more chronic conditions, low physical activity and poorer nutrition,” said co-author, assistant professor Marla Beauchamp.

“However, those factors alone did not account for the mobility problems we observed among people with COVID. Rehabilitation strategies need to be developed for adults who avoid hospitalisation due to COVID but still need support to restore their mobility and physical function.”

The researchers concluded that there is a need to further understand the long-term impacts of COVID and consider “the development and implementation of effective intervention and management approaches to address any persistent deficits in mobility and functioning among those living in the community.”

Source: Dalhousie University

Categories : COVIDTags :

Fourth Wave Ending as COVID Becomes Endemic

On By ModernMedia
Image by Quicknews

Speaking to  the media on Friday, Dr Joe Phaahla said that vaccinations had “uncontestably” lowered the rate of hospitalisations as seen by reduced hospital admissions in the fourth wave. saying that there has been a decoupling between new infections and hospital admissions and deaths. An article awaiting peer review on the medRxiv preprint server shows evidence of this in Cape Town.

Vaccinations were still lower than expected, despite a renewed vaccination drive from 17 December, a situation he attributed to people focussing on their festivities. As of Thursday, 45.5% of all SA adults had received at least one dose, with just under 40% being fully vaccinated. However, only 31.6% of 18–34 year olds have been vaccinated. About one million doses have been administered to the newly opened 12–17 year age group.

In an interview with eNCA, Dr Phaahla said that he concurs with experts that COVID is heading towards becoming an endemic disease, emphasising that South Africa is prepared for this. A new dashboard is to be unveiled which will show the number of vaccinated and unvaccinated in hospitals.

Dr Phaahla has also said that the issue of mandatory vaccinations is currently being deliberated by the government and that an announcement will be made in due course. In the US, the Supreme Court blocked President Biden’s vaccine mandate for large companies, which is seen as a significant blow to his administration’s COVID response plan.

The NICD’s Dr Michelle Groome said that almost 99% of all COVID cases sequenced are caused by Omicron. Gauteng, has exited the fourth wave with a low rate of new cases (1.4 cases per 100 000) and slight (2.2%) increase, likely attributable to increased testing. All other provinces had observed a decrease in weekly incidence of new cases, save Northern Cape (21.9 per 100 000, 18.3% increase). A 14.3% positivity rate was seen as of 13 January, down from highs above 35% in mid-December.

Test positivity rate had fallen from 25–30% in the last week of 2022 to 14% on Thursday.