Analysis of nearly 7 billion Taco Bell transactions finds sugary drink taxes not linked to lower beverage calorie purchases
Taxes on sugary drinks had no effect on beverage calorie purchases from fast-food chain restaurants in the U.S., according to a new study by Brian Elbel and Pasquale Rummo from NYU Grossman School of Medicine and colleagues publishing April 2nd in the open-access journal PLOS Medicine.
Sugary drink taxes have been adopted in several U.S. jurisdictions as a public health strategy to curb sugar consumption and improve dietary behaviors. Research on the impact of these taxes on grocery stores purchases attribute sugary drink taxes to an estimated 15% decrease in sales. However, whether this translates to an impact in restaurant sales has not been well studied.
Researchers analyzed six years of sales data (2015–2020) from more than 7,300 Taco Bell locations nationwide, focusing on drive‑through purchases. The study compared beverage calories per transaction at 60 restaurants across five jurisdictions with sugary drink taxes—Albany, California; Cook County, Illinois; Oakland, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Seattle, Washington—with a matched group of similar restaurants in areas without such taxes.
Overall, the analysis found no significant association between sugary drink taxes and beverage calories per transaction, suggesting that sugary drink taxes of this size or alone may not substantially reduce beverage calorie consumption in fast food restaurant settings.
The authors note that consumer behaviour in restaurants—such as choosing combo meals or prioritising convenience—may limit the effectiveness of these policies.
Elbel adds, “Using millions of transactions from six years of sales data, we found that sugary beverage taxes did not influence beverage calories when implemented in five cities in the U.S.”
Rummo notes, “These results suggest that sugary drink taxes may not be effective in reducing beverage calorie consumption in fast food restaurants, as compared to supermarkets. This could be because the sizes of sugary drink taxes in the U.S. are too small for consumers or that they just aren’t responsive to price changes in these settings, among other reasons.”
Provided by PLOS
